Monday, February 22, 2010

Should I split or should I steal?

Aside from always sounding prim and intelligent, the Brits also have a knack with game shows. They invented Who Wants to Be A Millionaire and Deal or No Deal. Right now I'm hooked on one that hasn't made its way across the Pond, called Golden Balls.

The interesting part about Golden Balls is the way every game ends. It starts out with two random players working together to build up a pot of money. It's pretty much a lottery game up until the end, where the add an element of game theory, and my econ senses tingle. Anyone who knows the Prisoner's Dilemma will find it familiar. 

After the jackpot is final, each player gets to choose whether they will split or steal the pot. If both choose split, each one gets 50% of the pot. If one steals while the other splits, the thief gets all. If both try to steal, though, they both walk away with nothing. There is discussion before hand, but both players must announce their decision before hands.

All good economists know the Nash equilibrium. Both should decide to steal, and walk away with nothing. Sometimes this happens, but sometimes not. Sometimes, a little miracle happens and both choose split and both hug each other and even in me, a little part thinks I have it all wrong about how cruel and evil the world is. Sometimes, a good soul chooses split while the partner chooses steal, and I feel the loser will go on to be a cynical economist.

This game does break the standard prisoner's dilemma because the agents can communicate and collude. Real life prisoners have done the same thing by forming criminal organizations that have oaths of silence. Suddenly a little bit more jail time doesn't sound so bad when faced with having your loved ones killed by vengeful gangsters. Morality and social pressure work in similar ways. The crowd cheers when the partners reach a split-split decision, and boo when someone steals. Is that extra cash worth being televised as a jerk?

So what would you do? Split or steal? Personally I would split, but only because I'd be diversifying my risk. If my partner splits, I walk out with money and a sense of human progress. If my partner steals, at least I'll be assured that I did not make a mistake in studying the dismal science of economics.

2 comments:

Seamus said...

A short paper using this TV show as a natural experiment of the Prisoner’s Dilemma can be accessed at:

Economic Incentives – The Goldenballs Dilemma

The conclusion: Gender, age, occupation and hair colour! matter.

M said...

Yes, the YouTube comments are down-right hateful (but when are they not?).

A quick glance at them tells me that young women are not to be trusted in the final round.